What could the UK agri-food system look like in 2050?
Published November 2023
How might the world look in 2050, and what sort of UK agri-food system might exist as a result? This report describes four possible futures and what policy planning and research will be needed under each, to move the agri-food system towards a net zero UK.
Our four ‘plausible futures’ were developed around how the world could change in terms of geopolitics and stability, markets and social change. In all four scenarios, the UK reaches net zero emissions by 2050, but in different contexts, via different pathways, and with different implications. The key features of each scenario are as follows:
An unstable and globalised world, where economic growth is key (essentially business as usual).
Permanent economic crises increase inequality and reduce financial support for farming; climate and trade volatility make resilience building important for households, supply chains and agriculture; access to agricultural inputs become more variable globally; technology is seen as the saviour but with little success; food is grown intensively and is mostly ultra-processed; large areas of less productive farmland are given over to other uses; strong corporate control exists with small margins for food producers.
Geopolitically stable and globalised, underpinned by circular sustainable systems and values.
Sustainability and wellbeing are a stronger focus than economic growth; mixed and diversified farming systems increase, where farming shares more land with nature and more trees are integrated; agriculture features lower yields with fewer inputs, but technologies help agro-ecological/regenerative farming; more people have ‘flexitarian’ diets based on more ‘whole foods’, less ultra-processed foods, and more local food networks; a circular economy reduces resource pressures; carbon-border taxes make imports more expensive; food is more expensive but this is ‘offset’ by less waste and shifts in diet; farmgate prices are higher and more farmers have dual careers.
An unstable, regionalised world, where a circular economy is driven by the need to save
resources.
The focus is resilience-building and efficiency; life is hard with economic contraction and global crises driving an ‘island-fortress’ mentality; food security is high on agenda with agricultural policy driven by the need to feed everyone; food production is not technologically rich; mixed farming prevails due to the cost and availability of fertilisers; biomass and green composting thrive; farmers focus on ‘traditional’ UK crops
best suited to the land, with some new crops suited to a warming climate; meat becomes a luxury for many; prices are high and people buy less, consume less, waste less, travel less.
A geopolitically stable world, with a globalised economy built on ‘green growth’.
A high-tech, post-fossil fuel future, with diverse food growing technologies (urban, vertical, proteins), intensive and efficient agriculture; more green fertilisers and biotechnology; more ultra-processed food, but designed for better nutrition; countries trade on comparative advantage in fruit and veg; farming is based on ‘sustainable intensification’ and land sparing; UK production is mainly horticulture, grains, and much less red meat; ruminants farmed in limited way to minimise pollution, using methane inhibitors; pasture is focused on production of heritage meat, rewilded, or used for feedstock for protein extraction; inequality is lower than Scenario A (‘Build back fast again’) and C (‘Self-sufficiency’) as food is seen as a basic right.
What could the UK agri-food system look like in 2050?
Why scenarios and why now?
The UK Government does not currently have a plan for how the agri-food system will contribute to its ‘net zero by 2050’ commitment, even though the sector accounts for around a quarter of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions. There is also no consensus around a vision for a sustainable UK agri-food system.
The rapid pace of global change and recent geopolitical instability pose challenges for thinking about the future, and show that past trends cannot simply be extrapolated forwards. This poses a challenge for policy makers trying to plan for the future. Yet the research needs of the different future worlds requires careful but urgent thought, since innovations can take decades to deploy at scale.
Scenarios help us to think about possible challenges and opportunities ahead, and provide a route for planning and decision-making – which was the aim of this report. The scenarios should not be taken as the future we think will happen, should happen, or that we should choose from. Rather, they provide a framework to help us think about what research might be needed to support a sustainable future food system.
How the scenarios were built
The four ‘plausible futures’ were developed by considering how the world could change in terms of geopolitics and stability, markets and social change. In all four scenarios, the UK reaches net zero emissions by 2050, but in different contexts, via different pathways, and with different implications.
The scenarios were built over several months of workshops and events with agri-food specialists and stakeholders from within the AFN Network+, as well as about 40 other individuals from; UK universities and research institutes; central government departments and agencies involved in food, health and environment; international development agencies such as the UN; national and local farming groups covering both conventional agriculture and environmentally-progressive production systems; environmental organisations; international commodity trading organisations; the security and diplomatic services; commercial organisations; international financial services including national banks.
The scenarios were built by considering key uncertainties, which centred on three questions:
- Geopolitics and stability: Will the world be more volatile, conflicted and contested or return to cooperative, rules-based and calmer?
- Economics: Will we rediscover open, global markets and drive back towards globalisation, or move towards more regionalised, regulated and securitized markets
- Demand – consumption-based growth or more sustainability: How will demand for the goods from land evolve? Will it grow unfettered, or will it decouple from resource demand, through price signals and sector or system innovation?
